The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye recorded a $57 billion drawdown in gross reserves between the February 21 peak and the April 3 trough. Net reserves excluding swaps and FX liabilities, the spendable portion of the reserve base, fell from approximately $60 billion to $18.4 billion over the same window. A partial recovery to $39.7 billion by April 17 reversed in the week ending April 24, with net reserves ex-swaps declining $3.3 billion to $36.4 billion as gold prices retraced and swap unwind activity slowed.
The mid-April recovery was funded primarily through swap operations rather than earned through current account or capital inflows. Approximately 73 tonnes of gold swap positions were opened in March, alongside outright sales of approximately 55 tonnes. Total gold deployed since the war began: 128 tonnes. Net reserves ex-swaps remain at less than one third of the December 12, 2025 level of $66 billion.
Turkey's disinflation policy framework requires the lira to depreciate at a pace slower than monthly inflation to engineer real appreciation. Maintaining that crawl requires active FX intervention. The reserve base available for intervention, net of swap obligations and short-term FX liabilities, is $36 billion. Short-term external debt obligations standing behind the system total $232 billion. April CPI printed at 32.37% year-over-year, a six-month high, exceeding the 31% consensus and surprising 4.18% month-over-month. The CBRT held the policy rate at 37% in March and April after the war forced a pause to the cutting cycle that had taken rates from 50% in March 2024 to 37% by January 2026.
The April 17 to April 24 give-back of $3.3 billion, absent any new shock, is the first weekly data point in the post-war series to be examined in detail in the upcoming YRS Special Report on Turkey.
A 16-page institutional report extending the reserve analysis above with full coverage of policy rate trajectory and the May 14 Inflation Report revision, gold and FX swap composition mechanics, $232B short-term external debt rollover dynamics, trade and energy balance pass-through from the Iran war, and explicit cross-asset positioning across local rates, the sovereign USD curve, and lira exposure.
Publishing late May 2026. Subscribers receive the full report on release. Commission inquiries: commission@youngsratings.com.
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